Amid the economic rhetoric, Americans vote for free markets and addressing looming disasters like the budget deficit and social security.

We don’t usually write about politics. However, this is a unique election season, and there is a lot of rhetoric from both candidates and the media about how the economy fared under former President Trump and is doing now under the Biden-Harris administration.  Which candidate will address the immediate issues like healthcare and housing prices and the looming disasters like the budget deficit and social security? We decided to ask the voters! As part of our most recent Capitalism Barometer Survey, we worked with YouGov to survey 1,200 Americans after the Democratic National Convention and before the September 10th debate.

We found that political moderates think Vice President Harris is likelier to win. However, no matter their ideological affiliation, Americans decidedly voted for more free enterprise. They see the current version of the economy as biased.  Specifically, they say government bailouts, stimulus, and direct investment have created a safety net for the rich. Surprisingly, they are an optimistic bunch and think both Harris and Trump will (perhaps should) address Social Security and the budget deficit.

Moderates predict Harris will win the Presidential election.

Liberals are sure Harris will win. 91% of respondents who identify as very liberal or liberal believe Harris will win the election. In contrast, 81% of respondents who identify as conservative or very conservative predict Trump will win. The critical divergence is with moderates, which make up 32% of our sample. 64% of these individuals believe Harris will win, and 36% predict another Trump presidency.

Few people think the economy is working well, and few seek a more state-directed solution.

23% of respondents think the economic system is working mostly or very well. 34% say it is working okay. 43% believe it does not work well or work at all. When asked whether the overall economy should become more free market, state-directed, or stay the same, 46% support more free market orientation, 28% say it should remain the same, and 27% say it should become more state-directed.

More plans won’t fix America’s core economic problems.

Why isn’t the government working well? Most Americans think that money controls politics and government policies favor the wealthy.  Consider the responses to these statements:

• 80% say America’s economic system is mostly or very biased in favor of the rich.

• 84% say America’s political system is mostly or very biased in favor of the rich.

We also used an item reflecting a thesis in Ruchir Sharma’s recent book What Went Wrong with Capitalism: “The government’s bailouts and stimulus for banks and favored national firms have created a safety net for the rich.” 84% of Americans agree with Sharma’s thesis.  

Americans support free markets and expect a better balance or less collusion between government and big business.

Here are some statements that reflect American views of the nature of a healthy economic system:

• The free enterprise system is necessary for a free government: 79%

• In a democracy, everyone has the right to be an entrepreneur: 91%

• America should neither be the land of socialism nor unchecked (laissez-faire) capitalism: 77%

• Government and business should check one another’s excesses by dividing power: 71%

Voters are optimistic that the next Administration will (or maybe should) address social security and the budget deficit.

Surprisingly, over 60% of respondents say a Harris or a Trump administration will address the growing federal budget deficit. 69% believe the shortfall in social security funding will be addressed under a Harris presidency versus 61% under a Trump presidency. You have to love the optimism!

Among other statements asking about likely policy directions:

• 62% of respondents believe the regulatory environment for business will become more restrictive under a Harris presidency compared to 33% under a Trump presidency.

• A majority said the Israel-Hamas and Russia-Ukraine Wars would improve more under a Trump presidency, and mostly stay the same under a Harris Presidency.

• 67% think a Trump presidency will improve Immigration Policy compared to 54% for Harris

• Political and Cultural Polarization and Healthcare Prices would improve more under a Harris presidency.

Because some respondents gave Trump much higher marks than Harris on some issues, the average prediction of improvement under former President Trump is 53%. The average predicted improvement under Vice President Harris is 47%.

President Trump’s polarizing nature shows up in the bifurcation of responses about his expected policy outcomes. Some people, for example, are sure he will do significantly worse than Harris on all issues other than the Israel-Hamas war.  Overall, the average predicted worsening for all the issues under former President Trump is 22%. The average predicted worsening under Vice President Harris is 16%.

The central perspective about Harris is that her presidency would operate much the same as the current Administration. For all issues, 37% believe things would stay the same under her watch, compared to 25% who said the same about a Trump Presidency.

Here are the details for the above chart: The government will address the growing federal budget deficit. Everyday items will become more expensive due to tariffs and trade barriers. The government will address the shortfall in funding social security. The government will make significant direct investments in business. The regulatory environment for businesses will become more restrictive. The buying power of regular Americans will improve.

DON’T FORGET TO VOTE!